This article was originally included in our Fall 2024 edition.

On Tuesday, November 5th, 2024, the United States entrusted Donald Trump with another four years in charge of the country’s foreign policy. The election comes at a critical time for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), an intergovernmental organization critical to Western collective military defense, since it has been addressing conflicts such as the Russian-Ukrainian war. As NATO’s largest military provider, the U.S. has a great amount of influence in shaping NATO’s direction, but Trump’s second presidency calls into question the future of NATO and Ukraine. 

For nearly a decade, Trump has been outspoken about U.S. politics, and never been shy about sharing his beliefs regarding NATO. He has repeatedly threatened to leave the organization and let the other member countries fend for themselves because he believes that they are not contributing as much to their defense spending compared to the U.S. According to the European Union commissioner Thierry Breton, in a meeting during January 2020, Trump stated plainly: “You need to understand that if Europe is under attack, we will never come to help you and to support you. And by the way, NATO is dead. And we will leave, we will quit NATO.” ¹ Such beliefs are consistent with Trump’s second administration, for which officials have already stated that Trump would continue downsizing the U.S’ prominent role in NATO. Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, a former senior Trump adviser, is proposing a two-tier system where only countries that meet the two percent threshold—spending at least two percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) on defense—will enjoy the military protection of the U.S. This would go against Article 5 of the alliance agreement, which says that an attack on one member is an attack on all. Trump advisers have already claimed a loophole in which the agreement does not state that the members must respond with military force. ² In the past, Trump has also said that he would encourage Russia to “do whatever the hell they want” with NATO member countries that have not met their defense spending threshold. ¹

One of Trump’s main reasons for leaving NATO is because the other member states are not contributing as much as the US, which is partially true. In 2024, 23 out of 32 countries will achieve the target goal of two percent of their GDP spent towards defense per year, a significant increase from only ten countries in 2023.³ Yet, the assumption that the U.S. spends the most by percentage of GDP is false. Poland takes the title, spending 4.12%, Estonia comes in second at 3.43%, while the US is third, paying 3.38% of its GDP. ⁴  Many countries close to the Russian-Ukrainian war are spending more money in response to the start of the conflict in February 2022. 

Throughout his campaign for the 2024 election, Trump has repeatedly promised to end the Russian-Ukrainian war quickly but with no solidified detailed plan. Vice President-elect JD Vance has stated what his plan for Ukraine looks like, which aligns closely with what Russian President Vladimir Putin might imagine. Russia would keep the land that they currently occupy with a  demilitarized zone set up along the current fronts, heavily fortifying the Ukrainian side. Vance emphasized that while Ukraine would remain an independent sovereign state, it would be neutral by not joining NATO and other possible similar institutions.⁵On the contrary, Ukraine wants to join NATO for  protection from Russia, but Vance’s statements make clear that Trump’s administration would not let that happen. 

Recent positive developments for NATO include the addition of Finland and Sweden as member countries. Both countries decided to join the organization in 2024  due to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, since Finland shares an 830-mile border with Russia, and Sweden faced a simulated Russian attack on Stockholm in 2013.⁶ Including these Nordic countries seemingly strengthens the power of NATO, increasing the number of military reserves and portraying a stronger united European front against Russia. However, adding Finland and Sweden as member countries faced backlash from other NATO states. Turkey and Hungary tried to delay Sweden’s entry into NATO because of Swedish stances that they perceived as threats to their security, particularly regarding the Kurds. ⁷ A strengthened NATO, therefore, seems unlikely with  Trump’s friendship with autocrats like President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán of Hungary. Instead of solidifying NATO, Trump might intensify division by aligning with Erdoğan and Orbán, weakening the ability of member states to respond cohesively to possible threats.

Overall,  in the eyes of those rooting for Ukraine and the hope for an increase in the strength of NATO, the election of Trump will have a negative effect on the status quo. The future of NATO is uncertain, given Trump’s previous comments, and that is worrisome for the many smaller member nations that heavily lean on the U.S.’ protection. Since the fate of NATO remains uncertain, the state of Ukraine is very much up in the air on whether or not the Trump administration will stand strong against Russia or allow Russia to annex parts of eastern Ukraine. Unfortunately, it seems like the Trump administration is leaning towards the latter. Plus, what is to say that appeasement will work this time with Putin? Trump’s second presidency seems like it will weaken NATO and embolden Russia, leaving behind Ukraine as we know it.

Photo Credit: Mathias Reding | pexels.com/@matreding

Works Cited

1. Bateman, Tom. “How America’s Allies Are Trying to ‘Trump-Proof’ Nato’s Future.” BBC News, 12 July 2024, http://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3gr90jnxjvo.

2.  Hirsh, Michael. “Trump’s Plan for NATO Is Emerging.” Politico, 2 July 2024, http://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/07/02/nato-second-trump-term-00164517.

3. Zubova, Xenia. “Which Countries in the Nato Alliance Are Paying Their Fair Share on Defence?” Forces News, 10 July 2024, http://www.forcesnews.com/news/world/nato-which-countries-pay-their-share-defence.

4. Reuben, Anthony. “Trump: What Does the US Contribute to Nato in Europe?” BBC News, 3 Dec. 2019, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-44717074.

5. Barnes, Julian. “Vance Describes Plan to End Ukraine War That Sounds a Lot Like Putin’s.” The New York Times, 13 Sept. 2024, http://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/13/us/politics/vance-trump-ukraine-russia-war.html.

6. Chatterjee, Phelan. “Are Sweden and Finland Going from Neutral to Nato?” BBC News, 12 May 2022, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61397478.

7. “Here’s What to Know about Sweden’s Bumpy Road toward NATO Membership.” AP News, 26 Feb. 2024, apnews.com/article/sweden-hungary-nato-turkey-membership-defense-russia-a1ce06ef3da02b9c892e625efa138d35.

Photo Credit: Ministry of Defense of Ukraine