An Earth-Shattering Poll

In his memoir A Promised Land, President Obama described the “dreaded situation” in which an administration can find itself where “headlines sour,” “problems compound,” and “you find yourself tumbling through the crashing waters, bruised and disoriented, waiting to hit bottom, and hoping that you’ll survive the impact.” It seems as if this situation most definitely applies to the state of the British government under the ruling Labour Party and its leader Prime Minister Keir Starmer. 

Riding into office with a majority not seen since the first election of Tony Blair in the late 1990s, Starmer promised to be a breath of fresh air and bring much needed change after 14 years of Tory rule. However, the developments in Great Britain since Starmer’s election have been anything but change. Since July 4, 2024, Starmer’s Labor premiership has been faced with continued fears of over-immigration, a war in Gaza, an erratic partner in the U.S., persistent chatter of a “cost of living crisis,” and sinking poll numbers. Like Obama theorized, British media have taken this perpetual sense of instability and unpopularity to create a negative narrative regarding the Labour government. 

Indeed, the linchpin of this narrative began in late September when the independent pollster YouGov released a poll asking respondents, “If the election were held today, who would you vote for?” The results, apportioned based on parliamentary constituency, showed that Reform UK would claim 311 seats (just shy of a majority), reducing Labour to 144 seats and Conservatives to 45 seats; in other words, if the election were held in this current political weather, the far-right populist Reform UK and its leader Nigel Farage would most likely form a government and wipe out two-thirds of the existing seats held by Labour and the Conservatives.

The power of this poll is built upon two key understandings. This is the first poll that has shown a complete change in government from Labour to Reform, barely a year into the Labour government’s five-year term. Additionally, there is scale; not only is Reform coming inches from power, but their victory would virtually wipe Labour out of all constituencies except those in their urban strongholds and wipe the Conservatives off the map, reducing both parties to a mere two-thirds of their current seat share in the House of Commons. Beyond all the numbers a question remains: what makes this poll so powerful in the current political moment? It perfectly exemplifies the distrust that British citizens have for their government and the two major parties that have governed Great Britain since the beginning of the Victorian Age–a culmination of growing socioeconomic pressures that are breaking British politics. Thus, if this poll is correct, the next election would bring an end to two-party rule as we know it, knock the two major parties out of power, and mark the pinnacle of power for a party formed not even a decade ago, bringing them from their current seat share of five seats to a whopping 311 seats.

Housing Shortages

Many of the socioeconomic issues haunting the Labour party today have their roots in decisions made years or even decades prior. This holds true especially for housing and the price of rent. Among 18–34-year-olds, about one-third put housing as the number one issue for them going into an election; moreover, in its 2024 landslide victory, Labour won with consistently at or above 40% of those under 40,  making this a key Labour demographic.

Beginning in the interwar period, urban growth and housing development became contested due to a sentiment among voters outside of large urban areas that the growing urban footprint was encroaching on their land and destroying vital greenspaces. As a result of this movement, dubbed “Not-In-My-Backyard,” the British government passed the Town and Country Planning Act of 1947, protecting greenspaces and limiting the sprawl of urban areas while decreasing the scale and speed of housing construction through local approval of development on a case-by-case basis. In the 1980s, the right-to-buy framework pushed by Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative Manifesto led to a large increase in the number of people that could own their own home outright, at the cost of selling off social housing that had acted as a safety net for many Britons up until that point. Within a few years, the rate of council home construction declined, an initial symptom of the problem facing Britons today. Finally, in 1988, the Housing Act attempted to make it easier for Britons to move in and out of a lease, in what was known as the Buy-To-Let phenomenon; however, in doing so, the British government loosened control of many rent regulations, allowing landlords in the modern day to mark-up housing prices.Now, in 2025, renters are facing overly high rents, while the supply of private and public housing has simultaneously been unable to keep up with the demand. Two statistics exemplify this problem, an integral part of the “cost-of-living crisis.” According to the Centre for Cities, in comparison to the average European country, the U.K. housing market is missing approximately four million homes that should have been built, highlighting the gap between stagnant supply unable to meet natural increase in demand with a growing population. As a result of these pressures, according to the U.K.’s Office of National Statistics, since the 1990s housing costs in England and Wales have steadily outpaced wages. In Wales today, houses are about six times more than the average salary. In England this jumps to seven times the average, and in London house prices are an impressive 11 times higher than the average salary.

Lack of Efficiency and Stagnant Pocketbooks

The other crucial component of this crisis is the twin issue of stagnant overall growth in the British economy and the subsequent stagnation of disposable income. Like the hole in the housing market, this problem can be traced back to the decisions made after the 2007 Financial Crisis and the ensuing economic stagnation. 

 In the U.S., after the near collapse of Wall Street and the entrance of the Obama administration, President Obama’s strategy to revitalize the American economy—similar to U.S. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s strategy following the Great Depression—was to pump government funds into a diverse set of sectors of the American economy to generate growth and investment. This strategy largely worked. In many ways the U.S. recovered to a stable position by mid-decade. Meanwhile, in Westminster, the new Conservative government, like many of its counterparts in Europe, chose a policy of fiscal austerity. Because of this decision and major shocks to the market, Britain has faced stagnant productivity and a growth in disposable income that lags behind the U.S. and other European countries since 2009.

In terms of productivity, the 2007 Financial Crisis marked an inflection point for worker productivity. Due in large part to the general policy of austerity pursued by the Conservatives between 2010-2019 and the shock caused by Brexit, overall business investment stayed stagnant, creating flat growth in the GDP per hour of U.K. workers—a hit at the productivity of British workers. Based on the most recent data released by the British Office of National Statistics, if the U.K. had continued on its pre-recessionary path of growth, the efficiency based on GDP per hour of British workers would be about 25% higher than the current number as of the third-quarter of 2025. In fact, among the G7, it is the second lowest in worker productivity, above only Italy. Following the reasoning of stagnant worker productivity, disposable income and overall living standards took a similar hit. According to the London-based Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), if growth trends in GDP per capita had stayed at 2008 levels, the current GDP per capita would be about 11,000 pounds higher than it is now. In a separate report by the IFS, between 1995 and 2007, real median disposable income for working-age people rose 40%, while between 2007 and 2019, disposable income only increased 6% compared to 12% in the U.S and 16% in Germany. Even post-COVID, disposable incomes have not risen above their 2019 levels. It is easy to write off the slow growth as simply post-Great Recession slowdowns that are in line with the rest of the world. However, in comparison to other nations, the U.K.’s growth in living standards before the recession was comparatively one of the best—now it is one of the worst. In the same data collected by the IFS, prior to 2007 the U.K.’s 41% growth outranked most European nations and the U.S.; after 2007, the growth in living standards has been one of the slowest in Europe.

While these long-term trends are highly integral to the problem, they are not relevant to the average Briton when entering the voting booth. So, what has made this hot, wet pile of kerosene light up into flames in the past five years ? The answer lies in the periods of economic instability caused by Brexit and post-Covid inflation. Post-Brexit, the economic instability triggered by the conservative governments of Theresa May and Boris Johnson attempting to renegotiate their trade and economic relationship with the broader European continent caused inflation to rise to 2.6% from its record-low of 0.4% in 2015. Between 2020-2021, as Britain and the rest of the world began opening up, the sudden rise in consumer demand throughout all sectors of the economy brought inflation up to about 8%. It was especially in these moments that, due to the aforementioned trends, Britons felt incredible uncertainty as incomes flatlined while prices went up astronomically. In this heated political moment, the phrase “Cost of Living Crisis” became common terminology in British politics, highlighting the incredible stress put on average people as housing costs became terribly high, prices rose without control, and the size of pocketbooks stayed the same.   

From Economic to Political Crisis

Labour was elected in July 2024 with these two issues at the forefront of a broader campaign to alleviate the “Cost of Living Crisis.” However, the response to both issues by Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been less than optimal.  

In terms of rent, Kier Starmer has evaded any mention of rent controls—although it appears to be a popular policy, especially with Labour’s younger base—instead nearly exclusively focusing on the supply of houses. Upon walking into 10 Downing Street, Starmer’s government set out a plan to build 1.5 million homes by the end of the decade; the most recent projections have the government already set to miss this goal.

On the side of economic productivity and direct costs for British families, the Labour government’s strategy has suffered from being controversial and incoherent. In the leadup to the 2024 election, Labour made two key promises: there would be no return to “austerity” with spending cuts or new taxes on working people. Then, in her first Budget announcement to Parliament, Reeves remarked that the way to economic growth was to  “invest, invest, invest”—an idea supported by the Institute for Fiscal Studies report on stagnant income growth that “raising living standards in the long-run means raising productivity.”

Despite this popular road map for improving long-term economic conditions, Reeves has instead pursued a strategy of growth through stability, focusing herself on lowering borrowing and balancing the budget. In her 2024 budget, Reeves declared weeks prior that a 22 billion pound “black hole” existed in the public finances, giving her a justification to raise taxes by 14 billion pounds through hikes in Employer National Insurance Contributions, Capital Gains, and Inheritance Tax. This led to immediate complaints that Labour was going back on its promise not to raise taxes on working people. Then, in a public embarrassment, in early 2025, Reeves was forced to make a U-turn on a new policy of limiting Winter Fuel Allowance, a winter stipend originally meant for all pensioners, to only pensioners in low-income situations. 

Faced with a very inpatient public, this slow progress and incoherent strategy is the central cause underpinning Labour’s crisis of confidence with the British public. It is in this current political climate, with Starmer’s personal approval sitting at 19%, that the September YouGov poll truly threatens to upend British politics.

The Collapse of the Political Centre and the Rise of Reform UK

In understanding the current political dynamic of Britain, one must understand not only the unpopularity of Labour governance but also the unpopularity of Conservative governance and, more broadly, the collapse of the political centre—the culprit for the rise of Reform UK.

In the heyday of Conservative leadership, they were seen as the respectable party of growth and stability. Yet, following the “Partygate” scandals involving Boris Johnson’s government and the disastrous “mini-budget” of Prime Minister Liz Truss, just as the cost-of-living crisis was taking shape, the Conservatives effectively lost the trust of the British public and in 2024 lost hundreds of seats to Labour and a handful of third parties. Now, as Labour too has lost the trust of the British public, one might suspect that the opposition Conservatives would simply sweep back into power, as would likely be the case in the U.S.; however, Reform UK’s ability to position themselves as a more motivated and trustworthy alternative to the Conservatives has been a key cause of their very quick rise to power. If the results of the September 2025 YouGov poll were a reality, the Conservatives would also lose nearly two-thirds of their seats as nearly all seats would go to reform. Most notably, the historic heartland of the Conservatives was in the Southeastern corridor of England; if this poll holds true nearly all of those seats would go to Reform, reifnorcing a death sentence for the Conservatives.

In terms of the Centre Left, the same story is true. In the past few elections, a pivotal region for Labour was a collection of seats known as the Red Wall in the corridor between the Irish and North seas, a Labour stronghold that showed their connection to centrist working-class voters. However, like the Conservatives, according to the same YouGov poll, this Labour stronghold would be dominated by Reform. In Wales, despite Conservative control of Westminster, Labour has always controlled the Welsh Parliament and claimed a majority of Welsh seats in Parliament. Based on the YouGov poll, Labour would only win three seats and most likely lose the Welsh parliamentary elections in 2026, a true symbol of the dramatic sea change taking place in British politics. To combine these two ideas, if this poll is correct and the election were held today, Reform would go from just five Members of Parliament (MPs) to a near majority of 311 MPs, reducing Labour to the minority and the Conservatives to third-party status.

More than anything, the larger story behind the rise of Reform UK is the collapse of the political centre and the ability of reform to temper its far-right populist reputation in favour of one that portrays it as the trustworthy alternative to a failing two-party system. In leader Nigel Farage’s personal letter on their official website, his entire message focuses on the “failures” and “broken promises” of both the Conservatives and Labour. He even goes on to say, “A vote for either is a vote for more incompetence, dishonesty, and failure.”

Reform is also tapping into the issues that Britons care about and making an impassioned cultural statement. In the same message, Farage highlights not just “stagnant wages” and a “housing crisis,” but also “record levels of levels of legal and illegal immigration,’” promising to stand up for “British culture, identity, and values.”

In the face of mounting socioeconomic problems and an incoherent response from the alternative within an existing two-party system, Reform has provided a very simple answer: throwing out the entire system and putting them in government. If the ground-breaking September YouGov poll is any indication, the country is listening. 

Work Cited

¹ Barack Obama, A Promised Land (New York: Crown, 2020).

² Patrick English, “YouGov MRP Shows a Reform UK Government a Near-Certainty If an Election Were Held Tomorrow,” YouGov, September 26, 2025, https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/53059-yougov-mrp-shows-a-reform-uk-government-a-near-certainty-if-an-election-were-held-tomorrow.

³ Adam McDonnell, “How Britain Voted in the 2024 General Election,” YouGov, July 8, 2024, https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49978-how-britain-voted-in-the-2024-general-election.

⁴ Andy Beckett, “The Right to Buy: The Housing Crisis That Thatcher Built,” The Guardian, August 26, 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/aug/26/right-to-buy-margaret-thatcher-david-cameron-housing-crisis.

⁵ Wendy Wilson, “A Short History of Rent Control,” House of Commons Library, Briefing Paper Number 06747, March 30, 2017, https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN06747/SN06747.pdf.

⁶ “The Housebuilding Crisis: The UK’s 4 Million Missing Homes,” Centre for Cities, February 2023, accessed December 1, 2025, https://www.centreforcities.org/publication/the-housebuilding-crisis/.

⁷ “Housing Affordability in England and Wales: 2024,” Office for National Statistics, March 24, 2025, https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/bulletins/housingaffordabilityinenglandandwales/2024.

⁸ Obama, A Promised Land.

⁹ Carl Emmerson, Paul Johnson, and Nick Ridpath, “The Conservatives and the Economy, 2010–24,” Institute for Fiscal Studies, March 6, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1920/wp.ifs.2024.2424.

¹⁰ “World Bank Open Data,” World Bank, accessed November 30, 2025, https://data.worldbank.org.

¹¹ PoliticsJOE, “Labour Will Solve the Housing Crisis. This Is How | Keir Starmer Interview,” YouTube video, 12:44, September 30, 2025, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ.

¹² Brian Wheeler, “Government Set to Miss 1.5m Target, Housebuilders Warn,” BBC News, October 29, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr5er1dpmn80.

¹³ Anthony Reuben, “Is There a £22bn ‘Black Hole’ in the UK’s Public Finances?” BBC News, October 31, 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2e12j4gz0o.

¹⁴ “Financial Statement and Budget Report,” Hansard, UK Parliament, October 30, 2024, https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2024-10-30/debates/11809FC2-3FF8-4B3A-9C78-4A56268F0D5E/FinancialStatementAndBudgetReport.

¹⁵ “Chancellor Rachel Reeves Says £40bn Tax Raise Was a ‘once in a Parliament’ Event,” Sky News, October 31, 2024, accessed November 30, 2025, https://news.sky.com/video/chancellor-rachel-reeves-says-40bn-tax-raise-was-a-once-in-a-parliament-event-13244892.

¹⁶ Kevin Peachey, “What Is the Winter Fuel Payment Worth and Who Will Get It?” BBC News, September 16, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gv632d051o.

¹⁷ Dylan Difford, “Political Favourability Ratings, November 2025,” YouGov UK, November 20, 2025, https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/53439-political-favourability-ratings-november-2025.

¹⁸ Alan Wager and Paula Surridge, “Understanding the Red Wall: Politics and Identity in the New Electoral Battlegrounds,” UK in a Changing Europe, accessed November 30, 2025, https://ukandeu.ac.uk/research-papers/understanding-the-red-wall-politics-and-identity-in-the-new-electoral-battlegrounds/.

¹⁹ Patrick English, “YouGov MRP Shows a Reform UK Government a Near-Certainty If an Election Were Held Tomorrow,” YouGov, September 26, 2025, https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/53059-yougov-mrp-shows-a-reform-uk-government-a-near-certainty-if-an-election-were-held-tomorrow.

²⁰ “Reform UK,” Reform UK, accessed November 30, 2025, https://www.reformparty.uk/